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Handicapping the Democratic Hopefuls – Election 2020

Handicapping the Democratic Hopefuls – Election 2020

Handicapping the democratic hopefuls

The Democratic presidential hopefuls are presently jostling among themselves for the opportunity to square off against President Trump in the 2020 election. So far it seems a contest to determine who hates America the most, who has the most radical solutions, and who believes in the ‘climate emergency’ most fervently. Let’s run the ruler across the field and see who is most likely to emerge from left-wing wilderness armed with a trusty slingshot to challenge the big bad giant.

Source: Wikipedia

Joe Biden – Current odds $4.30

Pros: As long term Barack Obama handler, Vice President, and best friend – Biden would be expected to be a clear cut favourite here. He’s reasonably well-spoken, is known from coast to coast, has an easy and folksy manner that ordinary people warm to, understands how government works, and clearly knows his way around the Washington swamp.  

Cons: Biden’s biggest weakness is that he’s a 76 year old white man at a time when the left chooses to judge people not by competence or the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin and their gender. Any time he raises his voice Biden will be cast as a grumpy part-of-the-problem dinosaur. Biden’s other weakness is his very creepy uncle vibe. Check out the Youtube clip of him getting handsy with women and young children and you will certainly feel squeamish. Expect him to be kept at arm’s length from anyone under 16 years old during campaigning if his team knows anything about the power of bad publicity. Biden also appears to have spent a little too long in the plastic surgery clinic/make-up chair at times and can present like a melting plasticine doll under harsh lights. He is also proven extremely gaffe-prone in recent outings. Significant AMG bets have been laid against Biden winning this race. Democrats are infamously prone to irrational flights of fancy though, and we might be setting our money on fire.

Source: Wikipedia

Elizabeth Warren – Current odds $3.00

Pros: Apart from her gender, Warren’s major pro is a detailed policy plan that she seems to have spent considerable time assembling. Her reasonably coherent set of progressive solutions to many of the popular left-wing issues can also be quite convincingly articulated. She has name recognition and will undoubtedly attract a slew of celebrity endorsements. George Clooney is almost certainly waiting to give his liberal nod of approval. Warren has vowed to declare war on Wall Street and hates billionaires with a passion, blaming them for the many ills that beset her country, popular positions among left-wing victims. She seems relatively fit and healthy for a 70 year old, and despite the short odds, appears the best betting proposition at this point in the game.  

Cons: Warren spent years grossly exaggerating her Native American heritage, seeming to benefit significantly from her alleged oppressed minority status. This myth was debunked when she took a DNA test in 2018 that revealed she was 1/32 native, and that her great-great-great-grandmother, was at least partially Native American, hardly direct lineage. She apologised for this transgression, but it might be used to undercut her story going forward. She can some across as angry and embittered, but has managed to own and control her rage to this point, which will be vital as the mud starts to really fly in her direction.   

Pete Buttigieg – Current Odds $6.50

Pros: Buttigieg ticks a lot of the required boxes and is given some hope of rising through the field of hopefuls. Young at 37, openly gay, he combines minority credibility with military and business experience and has strong stances on healthcare, income inequality, the environment, and gun control. He has policy experience, having worked on John Kerry’s failed 2004 campaign, and is well spoken. His odds have shortened sharply in recent weeks suggesting he poses a genuine spoiler’s chance. 

Cons: Buttigieg might just be a little too perfect, a little too liberal if that were possible. There is also the question on how he will fare in the heartland in a general election against the take-no-prisoners Trump machine. He will certainly poll very well with LGTBQI constituents, but this may alienate conservative, rust-belt America who might not be quite ready to make the leap.    

Source: Wikipedia

Bernie Sanders – Current odds $6.00

Pros: Sanders built a huge base of support during the last Democratic primary when his own Democratic party cruelly sabotaged his efforts to ensure Hillary Clinton won the nomination. He’s well known and respected and is a fiery speaker with a bold vision for America. Sanders knows how to campaign effectively and raise vast volumes of cash through grassroots efforts from small donors. 

Cons: Heart attack. Candidates aged in their late seventies who suffer heart attacks on the campaign trail rarely win anything. At 77 the white-haired old Sanders might be on his last legs. He also represents some serious contradictions being an old millionaire socialist who appeals primarily to young voters running to be the president of a capitalist country. He has very radical progressive policies regarding uniform healthcare and free tertiary education, and while this will be a vote winner among the young, his ideas might turn older more fiscal conservatives away. He is certain to perform well in New York and California, but will struggle in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. He is also another angry old white man, but if enough naive voters under 30 get out, and his health holds up, he could win anything. That said, we are overlooking him as a solid gambling proposition.

Source: Wikipedia

Andrew Yang – Current odds $12.00

Pros: Yang is young at 44, fresh-faced, and has significant business experience having been involved in several successful start-ups. He’s smart, represents a minority group, and is a solid public speaker. He has a slew of very sensible ideas regarding business, and has even championed legalising and regulating online poker, a winning policy among the gambling community.   

Cons: Yang is probably not well known enough to make a deep run this time around. It’s a crowded field, and it will be a massive effort to acquire the name recognition required to lift the trophy here. A sprinkle of AMG money has however been invested on Yang, just in case the ultra-progressive candidates take each other out. 

Source: Wikipedia

Michael Bloomberg – Current odds $12.00

Pros: A late entrant into the field, Bloomberg might shake race up before it is done. As a 76 year old white man with personal wealth of approx $58 Billion he makes an unusual Democrat, especially when other candidates have taken every opportunity to blame the ultra wealthy for the enormous wealth inequality that ‘curses’ the USA. Bloomberg has previously run for office as an independent and that makes more sense. He is known to loathe fellow New Yorker Donald Trump, and should he win this race, the general election would be guaranteed to get very messy. His personal fortune might make him appear immune to the dirty world of lobbyists and fixers, and he could potentially sell himself as above the petty fundraising and panhandling that is normally required to win office. 

Cons: Resident AMG conspiracy expert G.G Novak is adamant that Bloomberg has only entered the race to clean up the still unravelling Geoffrey Epstein debacle that threatens the protected elite class like no other scandal in history. The Bloomberg name can be found in Epstein’s black contact books, alongside Blair Tony and Clinton Bill. This theory seems at least plausible, and the timing of Bloomberg manoeuvres is highly curious. AMG is happy to bet against Bloomberg as a serious challenger for this race. 

Source: Wikipedia

Tulsi Gabbard – Current odds $21.00 

Pros: Gabbard is the official dark horse of the field. From Hawaii, she presents very well, has a strong military background having served in Iraq and been stationed in Kuwait, and was first elected to hold office at the tender age of 21. A former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee she knows her way around the murky political waters. She sounds reasonable on most issues and is not afraid to raise controversial topics such as America’s international military interventions gone wrong. As a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, she is certainly part of the Washington inner sanctum. 

Cons: Gabbard might just be a little too centrist, a little too rational-sounding for this election cycle. The left is baying for right-wing blood, and only a completely radical agenda will be enough. This is contrary to what is required to win a general election, but we do live in crazy times.

Source: Wikipedia

Kamala Harris – Current odds $26.00

Pros: A lawyer from California of mixed heritage – Indian on her mother’s side and Jamaican on her father’s, Harris is close to a dream Democratic candidate. She grew up attending both a black Baptist church and a Hindu Temple, so ticks all possible diversity boxes. Harris is extremely feisty and well spoken, and tossed fellow contender Joe Biden around like a rag doll in the early candidate debates, earning her early front-runner status. She supports the legalisation of cannabis, as well as all the trendy progressive policy stances on gun control and healthcare. She claims her long record as a prosecutor will stand her in good stead when confronting the evil one.  

Cons: Harris is not widely known outside of her home state. She has presented some interesting contradictions over the years, advocating for gun control while packing heat herself, and has had some changes of position regarding LGTBQI issues. She is also anti-campaign finance while also raising large sums for her cause. She might also suffer as a front-runner should her opponents unite to bring her back to the field.          

Update: Harris odds have blown out from about $4.50 to current price $26.00 for no apparent reason. She will not will this race.

There are a host of other hopefuls at hefty odds such as Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Eric Swalwell, and Jay Inslee, but they are probably starting too far back to be any real threat, and are probably more interested in building their names for next time around. There are also coveted cabinet posts to be filled should one of the more fancied Democrats topple Trump.   

Lurking out at really long odds hide some very familiar names. President Oprah Winfrey, imagine that, free cars for everyone that voted for her. She is the complete anti-Trump, and at odds of $190 might appeal to those who can’t resist a longshot. And if you are really open to wild flights of fancy, dark lord/cyborg Mark Zuckerburg appeals at $1000. Michelle Obama is kept safe at $100, and tucked quietly away an eerily familiar name – Hillary Clinton at $80. 

AMG supports responsible and rational gambling.

G G Novack – Political Handicapper

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